Regional Impacts
Newfoundland and Labrador: Slight risk for an isolated thundershower this afternoon over southeastern Labrador and northern regions of Newfoundland. Slight risk of embedded thundershowers overnight over the Gulf of St. Lawrence and southwestern Newfoundland.
Convective Discussion
An upper level feature over Labrador with a cold 500 mb trough slowly moving eastward will provide some instability in TCUs and showers for much of Labrador and northern Newfoundland today. Some brief heavy downpours are possible with cells that develop given freezing levels around 7000 ft and precipitable water of around 20 mm. A quick moving short-wave trough currently over central Quebec will swoop though northern Gulf of St. Lawrence overnight and over Newfoundland by Monday morning. There may be a slight risk for embedded convection in the morning hours.
Some TCUs in showers are expected this afternoon over northern New Brunswick. The 12Z Caribou sounding shows a sharp warm nose from 650 to 500mb and the convective temperature today is likely not going to be high enough to break that cap, thus no thundershowers are expected. A second short wave trough over southern Quebec this evening is expected to slide southeastward and some overnight convection along the warm front may clip western parts of the maritime marine district Monday morning.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
