Regional Impacts
This afternoon until early evening: Isolated thundershowers over southern Labrador and central and eastern Newfoundland. Brief moderate showers with wind gusts between 50-70 km/h are possible.
Tonight: A few thundershowers over western and southern New Brunswick and western Nova Scotia. Brief heavier showers.
Convective Discussion
A number of weather features stand out this morning. The 500mb upper trough extends from the Labrador Sea to Northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence, and a weakly cyclonic upper jet stretches from the Quebec North Shore to Southeastern Newfoundland. The cold air aloft more than makes up the limited surface heating and so a few cumulonimbus will develop this afternoon despite CAPE values between 250-500 J/kg. The airmass is drying nicely as open cellular pattern forming over the region. Weak downdraft could produce wind gusts between 30-40 kt.
A warm front will advance over the Maritimes tonight, but it will be quickly followed by a cold front advancing from Quebec Tuesday. Along the warm front some embedded non-severe thundershowers may touch westernmost areas.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
