Regional Impacts
NB: downpours and scattered lightning
NS: downpours and scattered lightning most of mainland
PEI: Isolated lightning western half
NF: None
Labrador: Isolated lightning Eagle River region
Marine waters: Scattered lightning eastern marine district into southwestern Grand Banks. Isolated lightning near Anticosti. Isolated lightning western Northumberland strait.
Convective Discussion: Generally unstable with an upper trough over the Maritimes providing steep mid tropospheric lapse rates. Shear will be minimal today with slow storm motion initially easterly at 5-10 kts becoming southeasterly later in the afternoon into the early evening. Given slow storm motion and PWATs into the upper 20mm, the primarily hazard today will be downpours over the Maritimes. In eastern Labrador over meager instabilities of ~300 J/kg aided by a deformation zone on the western periphery of the upper trough may allow for the odd strike, however bulk shears in excess of 40 kts may prove to be too much to allow for convection to reach heights sufficient to generate lightning. Differential heating near the deformation zone may also allow for the odd strike near Anticosti island. Much of the southern/eastern Marine district remains in a moist unstable environment, with PVA from the upper trough continuing to trigger scattered thunderstorms. This region of instability is expected to slowly advect east with the upper trough, giving continued scattered convection over the next 36 hours.
On Canada day (tomorrow), little thunderstorm activity is expect. However storms may move into northwestern NB from eastern Quebec in the early evening hours as a cold front moves towards Atlantic Canada.
Thunderstorm outlook for today:
Thunderstorm outlook for tonight:
Thunderstorm outlook for Friday (Canada Day):
