Regional Impacts
Today
NB: isolated thunderstorms in the northwest.
Labrador: isolated thundershowers in the west.
NL: isolated embedded thundershowers over the Grand Banks.
Tonight
MRTMS: isolated thundershowers.
Labrador: isolated thundershowers.
Saturday
NS/PEI: scattered thundershowers
NB/Labrador: scattered strong (nearing severe) thunderstorms.
Convective Discussion
An approaching trough of low pressure which was analyzed near the St. Lawrence river valley will likely trigger some isolated thunderstorms in northern ME this afternoon that will advect into NW NB as the day progresses. There is a fair amount of shear (close to 40 knots and linear) so could be some gusts to 70 km/h in some of the heavier cells (assuming they develop). But don’t really expect severe storms today as the more favourable dynamics remain further upstream for now. There is some lightning in QB that may make it to the Wabush/Lab City area this afternoon but that looks pretty marginal at best. Weakening upper level low could still give some isolated CBs to the Grand Banks today.
That same trough feature could give an isolated thundershower tonight across the MRTMS as cloud top cooling could help things a little. But certainly nothing to write home about.
The more favourable dynamics appear to be in store for Saturday based on latest computer models. I will not delve into details since that notion can change. Right now strong winds, small hail and heavy downpours are possible in some areas in the stronger cells. PWATs could be very high across parts of the MRTMS so high rainfall amounts in a short period of time may occur even outside the moderate (yellow) risk areas.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Thunderstorm Outlook for Friday night/Saturday morning
Thunderstorm Outlook for Saturday afternoon
