Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over western and central New Brunswick.
Regional Impacts
Slow moving thunderstorms could produce downpours and some hail, and frequent lightning.
Convective Discussion
Satellite imagery is showing an upper cold low over Saguenay Lac St-Jean, and a thermal trough extending along the St. Lawrence valley ahead of the advancing cold pool over which currently sits over northern Quebec/Labrador. 500mb heights have dropped between 3-6 dam over the Maritimes since last evening and the air mass is quite unstable again this morning. For this afternoon, surface-based CAPE values in excess of 600 J/kg, and sufficient mid-level lapse rates will in some case be pushing cloud tops above the equilibrium level.. Over-shooting tops to about 10-12 km are likely with the more robust storms. Some of the guidance even suggest the possibility of hail growth to about 1cm. The winds aloft have diminished since last evening upper air soundings, any of these slow moving cells could produce high rainfall amounts in successive waves. The general storm motion will be eastward at about 20 km/h.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Monday
Risk of a thunderstorm along the south shore of NS.
