Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon along the Atlantic coast of NS
Regional Impacts
Some of these thunderstorms could produce brief heavy downpours especially along the South Shore of NS.
Elsewhere across the Atlantic provinces.. no thunderstorms expected.
Convective Discussion
This morning at 500mb, the Upper air analysis is showing an upper trough extending from NF to NS, and a ridge building over New England / Quebec where heights have increased by 3-6 dam since last evening. Clouds and showers lingering over parts of NS this morning are now beginning to dissipate. The sea breeze circulation is getting established west of Halifax and the intersection with the prevailing light northerly flow behind the trough will become the focus for any thunderstorm initiation this afternoon. A modified surface temperature of 19-20 is enough to trigger TCU/CB with tops just under 6.5 km. The is the presence of a strong westerly upper jet with the max core of 120kt east of Sable results in deep layer sheer of 50+ knots along the coast. Any storm that forms will not persist very long over one locality.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tuesday
No thunderstorms expected
