Regional Impacts:
Today
NS: isolated lightning
NB: none
PEI: none
Labrador: none
NL: isolated lightning
Tonight
None
Sunday:
NS: none.
NB: none.
PEI: none.
Labrador: isolated lightning
NL: none.
Convective Discussion:
A decaying cold front could act as a trigger for a few isolated CBs later today, especially where surface convergence will be enhanced by S-SW flow off the Atlantic. Instability appears sufficient with MLCAPEs ranging from 300-500 J/kg, however skinny CAPE profiles and dry entrainment above 650 mb could act to limit updraft strengths in the IC growth zone for sufficient charge separation. A similar scenario appears likely in eastern NL however it appears dry air entrainment does not appear to be as much of a limiting factor, despite skinny CAPE profiles. Effective shears of 20-30 kts in NL appear more reasonable given the instability as opposed to NS where shear might be too strong for the available instability (effective shears of 30-40 kts).
Tomorrow appears rather quiet, western Labrador may see some elevated convection with as a shortwave from northern MB moves eastward along a zonal Baroclinic zone.
Thunderstorm outlook for today:
Thunderstorm outlook for Sunday:
