Regional Impacts:
Today
Labrador: Isolated lightning and locally heavy downpours
NB/PEI/NS/NL: None
Tonight
None
Tuesday
NB: Isolated lightning and locally heavy downpours over northern sections
PEI/NS/NL/Labrador: None
Convective Discussion:
An elongated quasi-stationary front rides from Hudson Bay across central/northern Quebec and across central Labrador. Convection will be isolated and embedded in nature along this feature as the atmospheric profiles are moist adiabatic, but with some slight cooling at 700 mb and lower level jets at 850 mb and 700 mb to help provide lift over the higher terrain. With CAPE values of 200-300 J/kg, weak to moderate effective shear and precipitable water in the 30 to 40 mm range, locally heavy downpours will be the biggest impact.
A low pressure system will advance northeastward over Hudson Bay with a trough extending southward into New England on Tuesday. There is a risk for convection over northwestern New Brunswick for tomorrow ahead of the trough. A sea-breeze set up combined with surface-based heating over the Acadian Peninsula may also provide enough lift to push past a warm nose between 700 and 500 mb in order to produce isolated convection in the afternoon.
Thunderstorm outlook for today:
Thunderstorm outlook for tonight:
Thunderstorm outlook for Tuesday:
