REGIONAL IMPACTS
Today: Chance of non-severe thunderstorms over portions of western NB, as well as along the spine of NS. Embedded thundershowers also possible across parts of Nfld.
Tonight: No overnight convection is expected.
Wednesday: Similar NB locations will be impacted by similar threats as occurred on Tuesday in NB. Western Labrador may hear some thunder.
Thursday: Non-severe thundershowers confined to northern half of Maritimes, Gulf waters, and parts of Labrador. A frontal feature will bring embedded convection to eastern Nfld - heavy rain is the possible hazard as this airmass has tropical characteristics.
*Outlook for Friday: Stronger and more organized thunderstorms are possible with the passage of a strong frontal feature coming out of Quebec and Maine.
CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION
Dynamics at play today remain fairly weak and disorganized. Many impulses are riding a long wave trof that is to the west of the AOR. This will help to destabilize areas across western NB later in the day (similar to yesterday). Very small pea-sized hail is possible with 700-500mb differences of 17 in the most favourable pockets. Moisture is decent up until 700mb, then it is quite dry. Pwats 22-27 today. Morning soundings suggest no wind threat, and effective shear is struggling to reach 15kts. MLCAPE in NB is 500-750J per kg. Much less across NS where inland development is highly conditional upon sea breeze development. The TS risk in Nfld is ahead of the sfc low(shortwave trof) located near Deer Lake this morning.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Thunderstorm Outlook for Thursday
Forecaster: Tirone.