REGIONAL IMPACTS
Today: Thunderstorms possible across NB that may bring up to 25mm of rain locally. Similar non-severe convection as yesterday across spine of NS, and in western Labrador.
Tonight: No overnight convection is expected in the Maritimes. Embedded thundershowers are likely along frontal boundary that will bring rain to eastern Newfoundland tonight.
Thursday: Similar NB locations will be impacted by similar threats as occurred on Wednesday in NB. NS will see more non-severe inland convection spreading a bit further east than on Wednesday (through Musq. Valley)
Friday: Stronger and more organized severe thunderstorms are likely with the passage of an aggressive frontal feature coming out of Quebec and Maine. Multiple hazards are possible late day.
CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION
On the large scale, an upper level low is creating instability over the AOR, and will continue to do so over the next 36hrs. MLCAPE values aided by sfc heating could support small hail and moderate showers developing along the remote terrain in NB. A frontal feature with sub-tropical characteristics is forecast to affect eastern Nfld tonight – main hazards being lightning and heavy rain. And way back to the west, a sharp trof is digging from James Bay down to the Great Lakes - trundling towards the Maritimes - the potential story for Friday. 0-6k shear for today is nothing to write home about. 10-15kts over NB will equate to very slow moving cells. A small yellow area was denoted to simply show that the cells over NS will be less moisture rich that those in central NB. Based on this, it's never black and white.
Thunderstorm Outlook for TODAY
Thunderstorm Outlook for TONIGHT
Thunderstorm Outlook for TOMORROW
Thunderstorm Outlook for FRIDAY
Forecaster: Tirone.