Atlantic Canada Weather Blog: Convective Outlook Valid for Today, Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

Today

NS/PEI/NL…Heavy downpours with rainfall rates of 20 to 40 mm/h with slight risk of embedded convection.

NB…Slight risk of a thundershower over northwestern regions.

Tonight

NL/LAB…Heavy downpours associated with Ernesto to affect southeastern Newfoundland.

NB…Locally downpours with risk of embedded thunderstorms possible.

Tomorrow

NB/PEI…Locally downpours with risk of embedded thunderstorms possible.

NS/NL/LAB…None.

Convective Discussion

The centre of Ernesto is beginning to track into the southern marine waters and northeast towards the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland tonight. Some bands of heavy rain with a few embedded thunderstorms have begun to move north into Nova Scotia this morning and southern Newfoundland well ahead of Ernesto. With precipitable water near 55 mm over this area, rainfall rates could be high at times today. As the actual storm moves south of the Avalon tonight, rainfall rates are expected to be high for a short period of time. There is a slight risk of embedded thunderstorms with the passage of this storm as well today and overnight.

A shortwave trough over southern Quebec and New England will slowly move eastward to lie over New Brunswick tomorrow then stall across the region. Heavy downpours are possible with this especially over northwestern New Brunswick as this trough slows further.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today