Regional Impacts
Maritimes… Isolated thunderstorms giving 15-30mm, some potential for torrential downpours today. Some stronger wind gusts possible.
Newfoundland… Isolated thunderstorms giving 15-30mm, some potential for torrential downpours today. Some stronger wind gusts possible. Heavier downpours along south coast possible overnight.
Convective Discussion
Most of the region will remain under this moist airmass for today and into tomorrow for Newfoundland. The most probable areas for isolated severe storms have been highlighted but it should be noted that intense rainfall could set up in various locations today and warnings ,if required, would be very short fused. There are a few areas that lend themselves to a slightly higher potential due to severe thunderstorms, including interior Newfoundland and central parts of the Maritimes. The break up of the cloud is already happening in these areas and along with the solar heating there are potential triggers for convective initiation in these areas. Surface based CAPE is likely to exceed 1000 j/kg in these areas and with the approaching upper trough at 500 there is ample shear of >50 kts for longer lived thunderstorms. Despite some of these values, updrafts are still somewhat weak with thin CAPE that could be sheared off initially, possibly impeding the deeper convection somewhat.
The other area of interest will be likely be along the south coast of Newfoundland tonight as the atmospheric river sets ups just over the eastern part of the island, the instability may be high enough to bring rainfall rates over 40mm/hr, radar rainfall estimates and convection will have to be closely monitored through the evening and overnight.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
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