Regional Impacts
Today
Lab: Risk of thunderstorms near noon and later today over western sections.
Northern NB: Risk of a TCU or very brief isolated thundershower later today.
Offshore and over the Avalon: Embedded convection is ongoing and remains possible today.
Tonight
Thundershower activity is not forecast over land areas tonight.
Tomorrow
Lab: Thunderstorm risk expands further north and east along the shifting frontal boundary.
Coastline of Nova Scotia: Embedded thundershower risk circles around the offshore low and may approach the Atlantic coast late in the day (prog goes until midnight). Not forecasting anything severe at this time.
Convective Discussion
Atlantic Canada finds itself sandwiched between 2 elongated frontal boundaries this weekend. One is offshore and stretches from the Grand Banks to the Carolinas. The second is situated from Ungava Bay back to eastern Lake Superior. It is easy to see the forcings on the 500mb charts, but additionally the cloud field on satellite is quite pronounced this morning. These long wave troughs are the lifting mechanisms for any convection that occurs in the next 24 to 48-hrs. Moisture is ok, but shear is substantially lacking in NB. Labrador is a different story. Shear may actually be too great for the amount of lift available. That being said, if an organized cell can form tomorrow, gusty winds (of 60 to 70 km/h) nearby could be a factor at play. This will be monitored. **Also of note is the forest fire smoke that is still affecting some areas of central Quebec. This could act as CIN that the models are not accounting for.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Forecaster: Tirone.