Regional Impacts
Today
Lab: Risk of non-severe thundershowers.
NL: Risk of embedded thundershowers over the Avalon, bringing moderate (to at times potentially heavy) rainfall.
Tonight
Thundershower activity pushes out over the eastern marine domain.
Tomorrow
Lab: Thunderstorms are possible over western sections.
NB: There is a risk of thunderstorms developing in the afternoon over central and northern areas.
Convective Discussion
An elongated frontal boundary continues to affect the eastern parts of Nfld today giving a chance of embedded thundershowers. The potential hazard here is moderate to heavy rainfall in convective burts. Pwats on St. John’s sounding this morning is 39, showing the airmasses’ tropical nature. This forcing will slump over the eastern marine domain tonight, marked in broad grey. There is a secondary forcing across Labrador and the Quebec Lower North Shore that will act as a TCU/CB trigger this afternoon. These storms are not expected to reach severe limits – CAPE is 500-750J/kg, effective shear 15-25kts. Isolated lightning is the main hazard. This trof is the forcing for Day 2 in NB.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Forecaster: Tirone.