Convective discussion
No thunderstorms forecast today. Gradual clearing is expected over Newfoundland with the upper low departing to the southeast. Upper ridge continues to build over the Maritimes.
Moisture ahead of a trough extending from northern Quebec to the Great Lakes is starting to spill over Maine/NB. Rain with a risk of thunderstorms will spread across western Lab, NB, PEI and mainland NS Friday.
Convective Discussion
Only one area for potential TSRA is over NL and waters to the NE of the island. Upper level low and some PVA gave some elevated ISOL TSRA to parts of Newfoundland early this morning. Skies are beginning to clear somewhat, which could give way to some ISOL cells this afternoon. Modifying the 12Z tep from YJT could give between 200 and 300 CAPE, but the upper dynamics are weak. There could be slight 500 mb height falls which could lead to some cells. Freezing levels are low, so some small hail is a possibility if they develop. OTWZ nil sig wx for the rest of the region.
Regional Impacts
Newfoundland: ISOL cells are PSBL this afternoon.
Elsewhere: nil.
Jeremy
Convective discussion
A couple areas show some potential for thundershowers/storms today. The first is a over the Quebec Lower North Shore. A weak trough near the surface could produce some TCU and am ISOL CB that could trickle into portions of the Great Northern Peninsula this afternoon.
The better area for possible storms is across SE QC this afternoon. WV imagery shows a good area of PVA east of James Bay that is advecting to the SE. Upper level troughing at 500/250 mb will give some weak divergence. There is also a decent jet at 250 upstream moving south of James Bay, and eventually curving towards the east, putting NRN NB/Gaspe in the left exit region (however the timing appears to be off just a little). Looking at KCAR and YZV, FZLVLs are below 10,000 feet, but PW is low as too the low level moisture. Shear, on the other hand, is pretty good. Expect strong gusty winds and small hail with the stronger storms this afternoon and into this evening. Given the decent dynamics, some cells will propagate over the GLFSTLAWR tonight.
Regional impacts
Newfoundland and Labrador: Risk for ISOL TSRA advecting from the Lower North Shore into the Northern Peninsula.
New Brunswick: SCTD non-severe storms are likely later today and into this evening associated with the PVA and upper level trough. Small hail and gusty winds are quite possible (conditions look ripe for some SVR storms in QC).
PEI: PSBL TSRA affecting portions of the island this evening as they move across ERN NB (good upper level forcing).
Nova Scotia: nil
Jeremy
Convective Discussion
A quiet day across the Atlantic Region today as the cold front that produced the severe weather yesterday has moved out of the area. There will be some embedded thunderstorms along the cold front over the marine area that is quickly tracking eastward.
Regional Impacts
Non Expected.
