Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

New Brunswick.. Severe thunderstorms are possible with strong wind gusts and brief heavy downpours during the late afternoon and early evening.

 

Prince Edward Island.. There is a risk of thunderstorms in western areas this evening.

 

Nova Scotia.. There is also a risk of thunderstorms over western and northern parts of the province this evening.

 

Western Labrador.. Risk of a thunderstorm this afternoon.

 

Convective Discussion

 

Based on this morning’s upper air soundings, there is a potential for destabilization but only later in the afternoon or early this evening. The main supporting features are analyzed just east of the Great Lakes this morning and it will take some time before they reach our region. Parts of New Brunswick have a greater potential for thunderstorm initiation, though the limitations appear to be more significant in the north and therefore the threat is reduced.

 

 

 

Convective Outlook Valid for tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

New Brunswick.. Severe thunderstorms are possible with strong wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening.

 

Prince Edward Island.. It is possible that some thunderstorms will move into western areas during the evening hours.

 

Nova Scotia.. It is possible that some thunderstorms will move into western and northern parts of the province during the evening hours.

 

Western Labrador.. Isolated thunderstorms possible.

 

Convective Discussion

 

Tomorrow is shaping up to be an interesting day for New Brunswick with dynamics to indicate that there is the potential for supercell development with strong wind gust potential. The main concern is either strong individual storms or a possible squall line developing late in the day.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

 

Mel Lemmon

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

No thunderstorms expected today across the region.

 

Convective Discussion

High pressure system centered over Newfoundland will continue to give fair weather today. To the west, there are two frontal disturbances, one over James Bay and the other over Eastern Ontario. Rain associated with the James Bay system will gradually advance over Labrador today and tonight. There is some lightning activity associated with the southernmost system - but it’s not expected to affect the region.

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

No thunderstorms expected today across the region.

 

Convective Discussion

There is weak short wave trough that will cross the Lower North Shore of Quebec and southeastern Labrador this afternoon and into this evening. There will likely be scattered TCU but, given the lower sun angle and weak thermodynamics, thunderstorms are not expected. OTWZ NIL SIG WX.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Jeremy

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Labrador today…

 

Southern New Brunswick, Fundy, northern Nova Scotia and PEI and into the Gulf of Saint Lawrence… Thunderstorms and heavy downpours with 30 + mm of rain possible in some areas tonight.

 

Convective Discussion

 

For Labrador weak updrafts could be sufficient to generate an isolated thunderstorm over a fairly large area. No severe weather is expected although stronger wind gusts can be expected in thunderstorms.

 

Tonight conditions may come together with moisture convergence ahead of a weak trough that will move over the area. With precipatable water values exceeding 50mm and most unstable Cape values near 500 j/kg locally heavy rain is possible where deeper convection occurs. Local rainfall rates of 30-40mm/hr are possible and radar should monitored for stronger cells moving through this evening and into the overnight hours.

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2