Convective Outlook Valid for Today, Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

Today

NB: Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of western and central NB today, capable of producing small hail, strong wind gusts, and torrential downpours.

NS/LAB: Chance of some scattered thundershowers this afternoon capable of producing strong wind gusts and locally heavy downpours.

NFLD: Chance of some isolated thundershowers this afternoon which may produce some locally heavy downpours.

PEI: None.

Tonight

NS/NB/PEI/NFLD/LAB : None.

Tomorrow

NB: Risk of isolated thunderstorms over northern NB in the afternoon which may produce strong wind gusts, small hail, and heavy downpours.

LAB: Chance of some scattered thundershowers in the afternoon, some may be capable of producing small hail, strong winds, and locally heavy downpours over southeastern Labrador.

NFLD: Chance of some isolated thundershowers in the afternoon capable of producing some strong wind gusts and locally heavy downpours.

NS/PEI: None.

Convective Discussion…

An active day has already set up over parts of New Brunswick today and severe thunderstorm watches have been issued. Some thundershowers moved into western New Brunswick early this morning associated with a small shortwave and have already produced some marginally severe rainfall rates. Some brief clearing is expected over western and central New Brunswick early this afternoon which will allow MLCAPE values to rise up to 1000 – 1250 J/kg, providing more than enough instability for storms to continue firing into this evening. Wind shear remains a slight uncertainty however, with effective shear values varying from 10 knots in the northern half of the province to 20 to 30 knots in the southern half. The storms in the northern half of New Brunswick this afternoon are expected to be very slow-moving and short-lived due to the lack of shear, but these storms are still likely to produce some torrential rainfall rates. This risk also exists in the south, but due to the higher shear, more of a multicellular storm mode is expected which could lead to some training thunderstorms. The main hazard in New Brunswick today is the potential for significant rainfall, but small hail and strong wind gusts are also possible.

Elsewhere, a few pop-up thundershowers are possible over Newfoundland and Nova Scotia this afternoon. Although effective shear over Nova Scotia is similar to southern New Brunswick today (20 to 30 kts), limited MLCAPE of 500 to 750 J/kg should keep these storms sub-severe but will still be capable of producing some strong wind gusts and heavy downpours. Shear is much less over Newfoundland, so any storms that fire here this afternoon will likely be short-lived. Parts of southeastern Labrador could see the potential for some marginally severe storms this afternoon associated with a weak surface trough and some weak vorticity advection at 500 mb. MLCAPE and effective shear is forecast to be marginally higher here than in Nova Scotia/Newfoundland, 1000 J/kg and 20 to 30 knots respectively. This could lead to the potential for some strong wind gusts and locally heavy downpours in any storms that fire here today. One of the major limiting factors however are very low dewpoints. Current observations show surface temperatures in the area in the low to mid twenties, with dewpoints of only around 4 to 8 degrees. This will likely lead to storms being very high based, making it difficult for the aforementioned hazards to reach the ground.

Tomorrow, a similar setup is expected across Newfoundland and Labrador but with slightly better shear across the region due to an approaching upper trough. In New Brunswick, effective shear of 25 to 30 knots and slightly higher MLCAPE than today (1250-1500 J/kg) is expected. There remains some uncertainty in New Brunswick however due to the timing of the shortwave moving in, as well as how much mid and low-level moisture will be available. Current guidance indicates that the shortwave won’t reach northern New Brunswick until late evening which keeps the risk of storms initiating fairly low, but the afternoon environment is supportive of some marginally severe hazards if storms do end up developing.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow

Forecaster: Copp

Convective Outlook Valid for Today , Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Today

NS/NB/LAB: Chance of scattered thundershowers.

PEI/NFLD: None.

 

Tonight

NB: Chance of elevated thundershowers.

NS/PEI/NFLD/LAB: None.

 

Sunday

NB/LAB: Chance of organized thundershowers central and west.

NS/NFLD: Chance of scattered thundershowers.

PEI: None.

 

Convective Discussion

Scattered thundershowers are possible across Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and extreme southeast Labrador today. CAPE values of 500 J/kg and shear near 20 knots will limited any thundershowers to non-severe. Downpours with training are the most likely event today with PWAT values near 30 mm and winds remaining light. On Sunday, the environment remains quite similar with scattered thundershowers once again possible across most of the region however over New Brunswick and southeast Labrador CAPE values will increase to near 1500 J/kg while shear will remain near 20 knots. This may produce gusty wind and downpours for those regions. Hopefully the lack of shear will keep conditions below warning criteria.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow

Convective Outlook Valid for Today, Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

Today

NB/NS/PEI: Risk of showers and thunderstorms across NB in the afternoon into western NS and PEI in the late afternoon/evening giving brief wind gusts and heavy downpours. There is a chance that a cell or two could approach severe limits late this afternoon near Keji National Park and in the Annapolis Valley of Nova Scotia. This convection should be short lived based on the dynamics today. The main hazard is rain.

Labrador: Scattered thunderstorms across the region from early afternoon to the evening giving brief wind gusts, lightning, and small/moderate hail.

NL: None

Tonight

NS: Chance of thunderstorms continues after midnight across eastern sections and over much of the marine district.

Tomorrow

NB/NS/PEI: An inland risk for single cell convection exists tomorrow across much of the Maritimes.

Labrador: The thunderstorm risk has pushed east near Mary’s Harbour, depicted in grey.

NL: Inland thundershowers are possible near Badger, depicted in grey.

Convective Discussion

A tale of 2 trofs today across the Maritimes. As these features advance from the Eastern Townships of Quebec, the atmosphere will destabilize. A jet at 250 of 112kts also sweeps through western NS late this afternoon, coinciding with the advancing thermal trof. This alignment MAY lead to a cell or two approaching severe limits in the small depicted yellow risk area. Dewpoints this morning hover around 12-15 and should maintain today along the warm frontal feature (sfc). The main hazard this afternoon would be rainfall, but also a brief wind gust to near 90km/h. CAPE is limiting however, and a lot of cloud already around – increasing CIN. MUCAPE values only near 500 today. Decaying storms may brush the HRM area late this evening, but not with any of their severe hazards maintained. CAPE is much higher with Eff shear of 30kts in Labrador. Hence the hail risk and more organized chance of discrete cells forming there. Tomorrows convection is forecast to be single cell and not severe. These will be inland airmass thundershowers, very typical to the region in June.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow

Forecaster: Tirone.

Convective Outlook Valid for Today, Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

Today

NB: Some isolated thunderstorms are possible over western regions giving brief winds, heavy downpours and small hail.

Labrador: Some isolated thunderstorms are expected for western regions giving brief winds gusts and small hail.

NS/PEI/NL: None

Tonight

None.

Tomorrow

NB/NS/PEI: Risk of thunderstorms across NB in the afternoon into western NS and PEI in the evening giving brief wind gusts and heavy downpours.

Labrador : Scattered thunderstorms across central and southern regions from early afternoon to the evening giving brief wind gusts and small hail.

NL: None

Convective Discussion

As a low pressure system pulls east of Newfoundland this morning, weak ridging build across the eastern Maritimes, Newfoundland and southeastern Labrador today, limiting convection. To the west, a trough of low pressure will slowly advance southeastward from northern Quebec, with another trough of low pressure  across the Great Lakes. Two areas to watch today will be ahead of these two features as they enter western Labrador and western New Brunswick this afternoon. With MLCAPE of 500 J/kg and effective shear of 15-20kt, convection that develops is not expected to be that organized, but could still give be some brief wind gusts and small hail into western Labrador given low freezing levels. For the environment entering western New Brunswick, there is similar CAPE values but a bit more shear of near 35-30kt and precipitable water of near 25 mm, which could lead to some organization across southwestern areas this afternoon. Multicell or possible lines may develop and brief strong wind gusts and small hail are possible, although upper support remains further west today, so are not expected to reach severe limits.

For tomorrow, the ridge holds over Newfoundland, but the two troughs continue further east, with the northern trough over central Labrador and the southern trough across southern Quebec and into northern Maine by the evening. More widespread showers and thundershowers are expected for Labrador with some organization possible into multicell or lines as MLCAPE increased to 1000J/kg and effective shear increasing to near 30 kt. Small hail and strong wind gusts will be the main threats given it will be quite dry in the low levels. For the Maritimes, the trough advances towards Maine with some potential for more organized thunderstorms given increasing shear, but CAPE remains near 500J/kg. There is increasing precipitable water of 35 mm, leading to higher rainfall rates in embedded convection in the evening across southern New Brunswick and western Nova Scotia.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow

Forecaster: McArthur

Convective Outlook Valid for Today, Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

Today

NB: Thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and early evening. Severe storms are possible along and south of Highway 2, with gusty winds and moderate hail. (Depicted in yellow).

PE/NS: Some of these storms may survive across the Strait and Bay entering PEI/NS this evening in their late stages of development. They won’t be building any further at this point. (Depicted in grey)

Cape Breton/Avalon/Burin: Embedded -TS risk near noon and this afternoon along the Atlantic coast and offshore. Heavy rain occurring in areas, but no other hazards forecast.

Tonight

Atlantic: No thunderstorms forecast in the overnight time period.

Tomorrow

Western Labrador: Thunderstorms are forecast to re-develop in the afternoon and evening hours. Some may approach marginal severe limits.

NB: Western and northern areas of the province could see a few lightning strikes as thunderstorms re-develop in the afternoon. Not forecast as severe at this time.

Friday

NS: Western NS and the Annapolis Valley could see organized convection that approaches severe limits. This will be analyzed further in coming shifts.

 

Convective Discussion

There is ample moisture again today across the Maritimes. LL cloud/fog is expected to burn back in NB late this morning, setting the stage. Today, a forcing at the 500mb level is at play. This thermal trof is expected to sweep through NB this afternoon, and brings the chance of all hazards to areas in the province (depicted in yellow). MLCAPE sits near 1800J with Effective shear values 30-40kts. Watches will likely be issued in the area of Woodstock and Fredericton. Dewpoints across NS are also near 15 this AM, but there is a lack of a sfc forcing as the synoptic rain effects most of the central and eastern region at present. If a discrete line of storms is able to form in SW-SE NB, the biggest hazard is the wind threat. Gusts could be over 90km/h in an organized complex – storm motion to the ESE. These cells also may survive across the Northumberland Strait and Bay of Fundy with a strong 700 steering flow late day today. The grey hazard area is extended to reflect this evening risk. It should also be noted that helicity today is non-zero. This, along with low freezing levels, will be monitored closely.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow

Forecaster: Tirone.