Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Regional Impacts
Nothing significant for Newfoundland and Labrador and New Brunswick. A chance for isolated showers with near severe rainfall amounts and gusty winds.
Convective Discussion
We continue with a deep ridge south, a deep trough extending from Labrador southwest to the Great Lakes, slanting down to a weak low near PEI with cold front extending southwest. NS is in the warm sector, with a weak thermal ridge moving east and weak cold advection approaching. Moisture is good again with PWATs near 40 mm and dewpoints inland in the low twenties, deep layer shear is near 45 kts. If some clearing occurs, there's enough instability to give some healthy thundershowers and gusty winds. Freezing levels are near 14k feet, so significant hail is unlikely.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
Nothing expected over land.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Regional Impacts
Nothing significant for Newfoundland and Labrador and New Brunswick. A chance for isolated showers with near severe rainfall amounts and gusty winds.
Convective Discussion
We continue with a deep ridge south, a deep trough extending from Labrador southwest to the Great Lakes, slanting down to a weak low near PEI with cold front extending southwest. NS is in the warm sector, with a weak thermal ridge moving east and weak cold advection approaching. Moisture is good again with PWATs near 40 mm and dewpoints inland in the low twenties, deep layer shear is near 45 kts. If some clearing occurs, there’s enough instability to give some healthy thundershowers and gusty winds. Freezing levels are near 14k feet, so significant hail is unlikely.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
Nothing expected over land.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Strong winds, especially multicells with organising features giving strong winds, are possible for south New Brunswick and parts of Nova Scotia.
Regional Impacts
New Brunswick and Nova Scotia: high winds and heavy downpours, possibly severe for both.
Newfoundland and Labrador: nothing significant.
Prince Edward Island: Gusty winds and local heavy rain, probably less than severe.
Convective Discussion
A tropical ridge south of the district and a deep trough extending southwest of Hudson Bay slanting east as you near ground level. A weak thermal ridge near NB with weak cold advection and good moisture trapped under an inversion. When the inversion breaks we expect multicells and linear features. PWATs are near 50 mm, dewpoints below the 850 layer are in the low to mid 20s, shear is about 40 kts for the threat region shown, and the winds are mainly straight line. With possible organising due to convergence and some weak troughing my cause things to persist tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
A broad weak low over the southern Maritimes and local convergence, including sea breeze fronts, may give some isolated thundershowers. Moisture is okay, and there is some moderate shear, so it may give near severe conditions in the afternoon.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Regional Impacts
Non-severe thunderstorms for Labrador. Non–severe for part of the Maritimes, with a higher threat to western Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.
Convective Discussion
For the Maritimes there is plenty of moisture at least up to 850 mb, with PWATs up to 50+ mm and dewpoints above 20 C, and a LLJ advectiing more from New England. Shear a bit on the high side over northern NB but in the 25-40 kt range for the rest of the Maritimes. There is some PVA and upper jet support, and the upper trough farther west slanting down to the east. New Brunswick and Western Nova Scotia and PEI are mostly clear, but with Cu and TCu starting.
For Labrador there is a deep trough to the west and moving east, partially clearing skies in the west for good insolation, and healthy shear near 45 kts, but PWATs less than 20 mm and marginal instability. Isolated to scattered thundershowers with local heavy showers, followed by some wind gusts, and a chance of small hail with FZLVLs near 10,000 feet.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
Non–severe for part of the Maritimes, with a threat of severe thunderstorms for western Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. The highest threat is for heavy rainfall, followed by strong wind gusts to near warning levels.
